Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4068
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
MQ 4068 · BOS → BUF
departs 1:56 PM ET · arrives 3:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BUF that day
↓
Other factors
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.