Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4098
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 4098 · DFW → BTR
departs 4:18 PM CT · arrives 5:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 47%
Mon 10/5 25%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BTR more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BTR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at BTR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BTR?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
4pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at BTR that day
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
BTR (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.