Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4102 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

MQ 4102 · ORD → DSM

departs 6:45 PM CT · arrives 8:18 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DSM

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,233 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precip0.13 in

DSM (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4102 · ORD → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?