Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4103
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
MQ 4103 · DTW → ORD
departs 10:25 AM ET · arrives 11:00 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 10%
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 6%
Fri 10/9 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
−15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 1,200 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 2.7 in of rain forecast at DTW that day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.43 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.