Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4113 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

MQ 4113 · DFW → MHK

departs 4:43 PM CT · arrives 6:16 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at MHK more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±4 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MHK?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
10%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MHK usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.83 in

MHK (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4113 · DFW → MHK

Odds over time

How late will it get to MHK?