Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4128
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
MQ 4128 · DFW → SHV
departs 6:40 PM CT · arrives 7:46 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 17%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SHV more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
−15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at SHV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −18 pts in 24h
−18 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SHV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to SHV?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
SHV usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
SHV (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.