Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4135
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 4135 · ORD → TUL
departs 9:40 AM CT · arrives 11:44 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 8%
Mon 10/5 6%
Fri 10/9 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
−14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9am departures from ORD are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL
↓
Arrivals into TUL at that hour are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
TUL (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.