Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4145
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
MQ 4145 · LCH → DFW
departs 6:02 PM CT · arrives 7:38 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 31%
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave LCH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −18 pts in 24h
−18 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
LCH usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LCH
Weather at each end
LCH (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.