Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4165
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 4165 · PHX → RNO
departs 1:57 PM MT · arrives 3:51 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↑
1pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RNO (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.