Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4174
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 4174 · ORD → RST
departs 9:00 AM CT · arrives 10:28 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at RST more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at RST more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RST?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9am departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↓
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.14 in
RST (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.