Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4188 LANDED 10:38 PM CT, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

MQ 4188 · DFW → ATW

took off 8:44 PM CT · landed 10:38 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ATW more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ ATW usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

ATW (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4188 · DFW → ATW

Odds over time