Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4217 LANDED 9:36 PM CT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

MQ 4217 · ORD → MSN

took off 9:08 PM CT · landed 9:36 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

MSN (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4217 · ORD → MSN

Odds over time