Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4219
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 4219 · ORD → ROC
departs 9:23 PM CT · arrives 12:16 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into ROC at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
ROC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
ROC (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.33 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.