Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4278
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 4278 · DFW → HSV
departs 9:30 PM CT · arrives 11:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 33%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±5 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at HSV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to HSV?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
9pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HSV
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.49 in
HSV (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.