Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4307
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 4307 · PHX → SEA
departs 5:55 PM MT · arrives 9:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.