Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5266 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

OH 5266 · MEM → PHL

departs 5:38 PM CT · arrives 9:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±6 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 667 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MEM that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from MEM are often late

↓ MEM usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling667 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.55 in

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5266 · MEM → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?