Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5475 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

OH 5475 · BNA → DFW

departs 7:34 PM CT · arrives 9:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

71% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
26%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
10%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.06 in

DFW (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5475 · BNA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?