Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5584 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

OH 5584 · BTV → PHL

departs 6:33 PM ET · arrives 8:07 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±2 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
15%
Cancelled
28%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ BTV is quiet at that time

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BTV (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.47 in

PHL (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5584 · BTV → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?