Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3111
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
OO 3111 · RNO → SAN
departs 11:43 AM PT · arrives 1:27 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 33%
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SAN that day
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.