Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3251
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
OO 3251 · SNA → SFO
departs 6:45 AM PT · arrives 8:30 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 18%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 12%
Thu 10/8 16%
Fri 10/9 16%
Sat 10/10 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
−21 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −21 pts in 24h
−21 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at SFO that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from SNA are usually not late
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.