Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3389 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

OO 3389 · SAN → FAT

departs 2:19 PM PT · arrives 3:42 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAT?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

↓ FAT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

FAT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3389 · SAN → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?