Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3495
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
OO 3495 · SNA → SFO
departs 8:25 PM PT · arrives 10:03 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 31%
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
4.1d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 53% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SFO that day
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SNA that day
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.