Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3878
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
OO 3878 · MFR → SEA
departs 12:20 PM PT · arrives 2:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Fridays in October are usually busier than average
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MFR
↓
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
Weather at each end
MFR (origin)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.