Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4636
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Tomorrow
OO 4636 · ORD → SBN
departs 5:52 PM CT · arrives 7:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 64%
Fri 10/2
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 27%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 41% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
SBN usually runs smoothly
↓
Cloud base down to 857 ft forecast at ORD that day
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 3.8 mi Precip 0.21 in
SBN (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.