Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4683
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
OO 4683 · TUS → SFO
departs 9:04 AM MT · arrives 11:25 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 21%
Thu 10/8 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Gusts to 30 kt forecast at TUS that day
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at SFO that day
Weather at each end
TUS (origin)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.