Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4741
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
OO 4741 · MSO → LAX
departs 7:15 AM MT · arrives 9:17 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 18%
Mon 10/5 11%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave MSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MSO is prone to delays
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSO
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MSO (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.