Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4781 LANDED 11:09 PM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2 Today

OO 4781 · ORD → SBN

took off 9:49 PM CT · landed 11:09 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ CID usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

SBN (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.45 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4781 · ORD → SBN

Odds over time