Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4792
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
OO 4792 · SGF → ORD
departs 6:34 PM CT · arrives 8:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 42%
Mon 10/5 25%
Fri 10/9 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
6pm departures from SGF are often late
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SGF (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.14 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.