Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4891
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
OO 4891 · PHX → SBP
departs 1:50 PM MT · arrives 3:33 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 30%
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SBP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBP?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at SBP that day
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SBP (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.