Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4891
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
OO 4891 · SBP → PHX
departs 4:05 PM PT · arrives 5:54 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 21%
Fri 10/9 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SBP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
SBP is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
SBP (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.