Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4991
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
OO 4991 · PHX → FSD
departs 8:35 AM MT · arrives 1:43 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at FSD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to FSD?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
FSD is prone to delays
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FSD
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FSD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.