Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4993 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

OO 4993 · PHX → SBA

departs 10:04 AM MT · arrives 11:40 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from PHX are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at SBA that day

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4993 · PHX → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?