Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5266
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
OO 5266 · TUS → ORD
departs 7:20 AM MT · arrives 1:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 16%
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from TUS are usually not late
Weather at each end
TUS (origin)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.