Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5412
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
OO 5412 · ORD → SDF
departs 2:29 PM CT · arrives 5:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 26%
Wed 10/7 21%
Thu 10/8 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SDF that day
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
SDF usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.58 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.