Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5593 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

OO 5593 · ORD → MEM

departs 9:00 AM CT · arrives 11:05 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at MEM that day

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling7,233 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.20 in

MEM (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5593 · ORD → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?