Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5686
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
OO 5686 · TVC → ORD
departs 3:56 PM ET · arrives 4:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 26%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 32%
Fri 10/9 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave TVC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TVC
↓
TVC is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
TVC (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.