Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5843
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
OO 5843 · ORD → MSN
departs 10:35 AM CT · arrives 11:49 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.10 in
MSN (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.