Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5858
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
OO 5858 · LAX → SMF
departs 4:30 PM PT · arrives 6:06 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 35%
Mon 10/5 11%
Thu 10/8 11%
Fri 10/9 14%
Sat 10/10 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↓
This flight has been late 10% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.