Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 6278 LANDED 8:26 PM PT, ~19 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

OO 6278 · SMF → LAX

took off 7:22 PM PT · landed 8:26 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 6278 · SMF → LAX

Odds over time