Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1205 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

UA 1205 · SFO → RDU

departs 8:10 AM PT · arrives 4:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↓ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1205 · SFO → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?