Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1238 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

UA 1238 · IAH → PHX

departs 2:20 PM CT · arrives 3:10 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ 2pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.47 in

PHX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1238 · IAH → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?