Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1254 LANDED 7:41 PM MT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

UA 1254 · DEN → PHX

took off 7:17 PM MT · landed 7:41 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1254 · DEN → PHX

Odds over time