Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1274 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

UA 1274 · SEA → EWR

departs 11:00 PM PT · arrives 7:18 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts +25 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
37%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1274 · SEA → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?