Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1289 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 1289 · EWR → SEA

departs 11:05 AM ET · arrives 2:16 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1289 · EWR → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?