Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1301 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

UA 1301 · SFO → PDX

departs 10:15 AM PT · arrives 12:08 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ PDX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1301 · SFO → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?