Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1302 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 1302 · SFO → SMF

departs 10:54 PM PT · arrives 11:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ 10pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SFO that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1302 · SFO → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?