Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1412 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

UA 1412 · MFR → DEN

departs 1:10 PM PT · arrives 4:43 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from MFR are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MFR

↓ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at DEN that day

Weather at each end

MFR (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1412 · MFR → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?