Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1475 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

UA 1475 · ORD → IAH

departs 6:29 PM CT · arrives 9:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1475 · ORD → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?