Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1576 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

UA 1576 · EWR → TPA

departs 9:05 AM ET · arrives 11:59 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

TPA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1576 · EWR → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?