Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1577 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 1577 · SFO → SEA

departs 6:28 PM PT · arrives 8:53 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1577 · SFO → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?